rediffGURU Ramalingam Kalirajan answers your personal finance queries.
After a turnaround in performance by Indian equity markets since July that has seen the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 wipe out the year-to-date losses, analysts suggest investors start nibbling into stocks that are focused on the domestic economy. While they say intermittent corrections, led by policies of global central banks and other economic data, cannot be ruled out, analysts expect India's relative outperformance among global equity markets to continue as it looks better placed with a healthy economic recovery, and remains one of the fastest growing major economies. In this backdrop, Neeraj Chadawar, head of quantitative equity strategy at Axis Securities, believes that amid global slowdown, aggressive tightening by the central banks, and preference for domestic interests first (by the local government), export-oriented themes are likely to be muted or will deliver conservative returns in the near-term.
Investors shunned shares of Bajaj Finance on Friday, a day after the non-banking financial company (NBFC) reported a sharp contraction in its net interest margin (NIM) for the March quarter of the financial year 2023-24 (Q4FY24). The losses accounted for a fifth of the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex's 609-point loss. Most brokerages have tamed their earnings expectations for the next couple of quarters, after the management said it expected the pressure on NIMs to continue in the near term.
Equity markets will look for directions from global trends, ongoing quarterly earnings and investment patterns of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in a holiday-shortened week ahead and may encounter volatility amid the scheduled monthly derivatives expiry, according to analysts. Equity markets will remain closed on Wednesday on account of 'Republic Day'. "This week is a holiday-shortened one and it's going to be critical due to the list of events and data that are lined up.
The Sensex finished above the psychologically key 60,000-mark while the Nifty surged past the 18,000-level on Monday on across-the-board buying amid a mixed trend overseas. A depreciating rupee and concerns over the US Federal Reserve hiking rates later this week failed to quell investors' appetite for stocks, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex rallied 786.74 points or 1.31 per cent to settle at 60,746.59.
Ask rediffGURU Ulhas Joshi your mutual fund queries.
The booming stock broking industry is being hit by rising attrition as the entry of big Indian business houses and expansion of existing players spawns opportunities for senior and middle-level executives. Surprisingly, multi-national players are at the receiving end as their executives are being lured by leading Indian corporate houses, which are entering into this space.
With the last quarter of 2023-24 (FY24) expected to have been soft owing to lower discretionary spend and macro uncertainty, many are hoping FY25 will be a year of recovery for the information-technology (IT) industry. The fourth quarter, January-March, is considered soft, and will continue to see the headwinds the sector has been facing. And the sector has entered the new financial year on a weak footing. Analysts are expecting Tier-I firms to report sequential growth of -1 per cent to 1.5 per cent and midcap players' growth may range between 0.7 per cent and 4 per cent.
India's top technology companies will witness a tepid revenue expansion in the third quarter (October - December) of the current financial year (Q3FY24) - along expected lines - on the back of furloughs and no blockbuster deals, even as the momentum gained from Generative AI (GenAI) is likely to take centre stage. IT services and consulting firm Accenture's first quarter numbers in FY24 showed a significant pick up in GenAI spending. It signed new bookings to the tune of $450 million in this space, a surge from the $300 million signed in the whole of FY23.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed firms reached an all-time high of Rs 288.50 lakh crore on Wednesday amid an ongoing rally in equities, as the benchmark Sensex settled above 63,000-level for the first time ever. The 30-share BSE barometer climbed 417.81 points or 0.67 per cent to settle at 63,099.65, its fresh record closing high. During the day, the benchmark jumped 621.17 points or 0.99 per cent to 63,303.01, its lifetime intra-day peak. Extending its winning momentum to seventh day, the Sensex has rallied 1,954.81 points or 3.19 per cent during this time.
Ulhas Joshi, Head -- Sales, Rank MF, a mutual fund investment platform, answers your queries.
Investors' wealth tumbled by over Rs 7.35 lakh crore on Friday, with the BSE benchmark Sensex plummeting 1,688 points amid a global selloff triggered by a new coronavirus variant. The 30-share index tumbled 1,687.94 points or 2.87 per cent to close at 57,107.15. During the day, it tanked 1,801.2 points or 3.06 per cent. Tracking the weak trend, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies slumped by Rs 7,35,781.63 crore to reach Rs 2,58,31,172.25 crore.
Kotak Mahindra Bank and Vedanta were the top Nifty gainers.
Selling in index heavyweights, including Infosys, TCS, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries, dragged the benchmark indices into the negative for the second straight session, analysts said. Among the Sensex shares, Asian Paints fell the most by 3.9 per cent as analysts expressed concerns over rising competition in the domestic paints market following the entry of Aditya Birla group company Grasim Industries into the paints segment. IT shares Infosys, TCS, HCL Tech, Wipro and Tech Mahindra continued to slide amid inflation concerns in the US market.
The numbers hidden behind the results tell a story of zero-return businesses and lower prospects for the core units
Market expert Shrikant Chouhan, head of Technical Research, Kotak Securities, replied to many such important investment queries during a chat on rediff.com on Tuesday.
Global trends, WPI inflation data for April and the ongoing quarterly earnings of corporates would be the major driving factors for the stock markets, analysts said. Investors would also keep a tab on the movement of foreign institutional investors who are on a selling spree in the domestic equity market for the past many days. "Inflation concern and monetary tightening across the globe are key concerns for the equity markets. "Equity markets are under the strong grip of bears however they look extremely oversold and due for a pullback rally.
A weaker-than-expected sales performance, concerns about higher competitive intensity in the current year, and earning cuts by some brokerages have weighed on the stock of the country's largest paint maker, Asian Paints. While the Q3 volume show was slightly below expectations, the company's operational and bottom line beat estimates, benefiting from the falling raw material costs. The stock ended the day with a decline of over 2 per cent at Rs 3,175 apiece.
Axis Bank was the top loser in the Sensex pack, shedding over 4 per cent, followed by Tata Steel, SBI, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, ITC and ICICI Bank.
In the Sensex pack, HCLTech rose the maximum by 3.12 per cent, followed by ITC which gained 2.73 per cent and M&M went up 2.61 per cent. TCS climbed 2.44 per cent. Tech Mahindra, Wipro, L&T and Maruti were among the other major gainers.
Except for Westlife Foodworld (Westlife), a weak 2022-23 (FY23) January-March (fourth quarter, or Q4) quarter performance and a muted near-term outlook led to a downward revision of earnings estimates for quick-service restaurant (QSR) players. Brokerages have slashed estimates by as much as 10 per cent for 2023-24 (FY24) and 2024-25 (FY25). The downward revisions have weighed on the performance of listed players, who have underperformed the market with low single-digit returns over the past month.
National Hydroelectric Power Corporation, the central power utility, has shortlisted five merchant banks for its initial public offering likely to hit the market in first quarter of FY08.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has spooked financial markets globally, will set the tone for Dalal Street this week amid concerns over energy prices and foreign fund outflows, analysts said. Participants will also track key macroeconomic signals like GDP estimates and PMI data for manufacturing and services sectors to be announced this week, they added. "With earnings season behind us and given the overall sentiments, markets are expected to move in sync with global peers in the coming week. "A close eye will be kept on the developments concerning the Russia - Ukraine crisis and considering the inflation overhang, market participants will also observe movements in energy prices," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd.
Growing concerns over slower-than-expected margin recovery, amid weak deposit growth have caught HDFC Bank's investors off guard. HDFC Bank's stock on Wednesday plunged nearly 9 per cent to hit an intraday low of Rs 1,527 on the BSE after reporting weaker-than-expected earnings in the third quarter (October - December) of the current financial year (Q3FY24). The shares of India's biggest private lender closed at Rs 1,536.9, down 8.46 per cent.
Equity investors became poorer by over Rs 9.75 lakh crore in two days of heavy decline in the equity market, with the Sensex plunging 1,457 points on Monday. The 30-share BSE benchmark tanked 1,456.74 points or 2.68 per cent to settle at 52,846.70 on Monday. It had ended 1,016.84 points or 1.84 per cent lower at 54,303.44 on Friday.
The stock of Apollo Hospitals Enterprise (AHEL), India's largest listed health care services company, fell 4.6 per cent on Monday (April 29) and slipped another 0.34 per cent to close at Rs 5,946.20 on Tuesday (April 30). The share declined due to a lower valuation for subsidiary Apollo HealthCo (AHL) and an aggressive valuation for Keimed, a promoter-owned drug wholesaler that is merging with AHL.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) were net buyers to the tune of Rs 16,459 crore in Indian markets in August, with majority of investment coming in the debt segment. In equities, they invested just Rs 2,082.94 crore while debt segment saw inflow of Rs 14,376.2 crore between August 2-31, depositories data showed. The quantum of investment in the debt segment is highest in this calender year so far.
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Axis Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, surging over 13 per cent, followed by ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Maruti, TCS, Kotak Bank and Reliance Industries. On the other hand, Nestle India, HUL, Tech Mahindra and Sun Pharma ended in the red. NSE Nifty zoomed 273.95 points, or 3.03 per cent, to finish at 9,266.75.
From the Sensex basket, Tata Consultancy Services, Nestle, Bajaj Finserv, Wipro, Maruti Suzuki India, Reliance Industries, Larsen & Toubro and NTPC were the major laggards. Tata Steel, Bajaj Finance, JSW Steel and Bharti Airtel were among the gainers.
While the budget is positive for the equity markets, crude oil price and the global scenario will largely decide the market direction.
Small and midcap schemes may impose restrictions on redemptions, cap employee withdrawals, and increase the exit load, while ensuring a proportionate liquidation of the portfolio during market crises to safeguard the interests of all investors. These measures have been outlined in the investor protection policies recently put out by mutual fund (MF) trustees. The policies for small and midcap schemes were prepared by MF trustees following directives from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) earlier this month.
Customers who possess gold jewellery but are either being denied a personal loan or are being asked for a high interest rate due to their poor credit profile may consider a gold loan.
An in-line ICICI Bank result for the quarter ended March 31, 2024, has led to analysts raising target price and earnings per share (EPS) forecast on the stock. ICICI Bank, they said, appeared least vulnerable to regulatory action on its digital offerings or for risk monitoring lapses.
The 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter performance of the country's largest listed paint companies was better than Street expectations. Asian Paints, Berger Paints, and Kansai Nerolac Paints (Kansai Nerolac) registered double-digit revenue growth, compared with the year-ago quarter, reinforced by strong volume/value growth. Falling raw material prices also helped the paint majors hoist their gross margins.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Yes Bank, Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, HUL, Vedanta, Tata Motors, ICICI Bank, ITC, HDFC and Bajaj Auto, that rose up to 3.75 per cent.
BSE benchmark Sensex nursed losses on Friday as investors pocketed gains after a five-session winning streak amid a bearish trend overseas. A depreciating rupee and foreign fund outflows further soured risk sentiment, traders said. The 30-share gauge, which had started the trade on a firm note, soon gave up all the gains and finally ended 651.85 points or 1.08 per cent lower at 59,646.15. The broader NSE Nifty snapped its eight-day rally to close at 17,758.45, down 198.05 points or 1.10 per cent.
'Investing in the stocks of holdcos can be a very efficient and inexpensive way of gaining exposure to the stocks of India's reputable growing business houses.'
